❧ Francis Fukuyama on his skepticism of accelerationist projections:

At a 10 percent annual growth rate, GDP would double in a little over seven years. This would require a doubling of all of the material inputs to growth: energy, raw materials, rare earths, land, and many other things. Where is all this stuff going to come from? Intelligence by itself may aid in the production of such inputs, but it will simply not dig the mines and build the factories on its own. And then there are political constraints: how will superintelligence open the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently a major constraint on global growth rates?

Accelerationists tend to be very intelligent people, but that intelligence tends to be narrowly mathematical. We know how to do many things like produce electricity or clean water in the cities of poor countries; the problem is a failure of implementation.

I saw much of this dynamic in crypto policy. So many shape rotators who saw every political question as an engineering problem. Either no concept of, or too literal a view of, group interest and political incentives. SEP 23