Jerry Brito

How Google Fiber is not like Verizon FiOS

In a recent post, Tim Lee does a good job of explaining why facilities-based competition in broadband is difficult. He writes,

As Verizon is discovering with its FiOS project, it’s much harder to turn a profit installing the second local loop; both because fewer than 50 percent of customers are likely to take the service, and because competition pushes down margins. And it’s almost impossible to turn a profit providing a third local loop, because fewer than a third of customers are likely to sign up, and even more competition means even thinner margins.

Tim thus concludes that

the kind of “facilities-based” competition we’re seeing in Kansas City, in which companies build redundant networks that will sit idle most of the time, is extremely wasteful. In a market where every household has n broadband options (each with its own fiber network), only 1/n local loops will be in use at any given time. The larger n is, the more resources are wasted on redundant infrastructure.

I don’t understand that conclusion. You would imagine that redundant infrastructure would be built only if it is profitable to its builder. Tim is right we probably should not expect more than a few competitors, but I don’t see how more than one pipe is necessarily wasteful. If laying down a second set of pipes is profitable, shouldn’t we welcome the competition? The question is whether that second pipe is profitable without government subsidy.

That brings me to a larger point: I think what Tim is missing is what makes Google Fiber so unique. Tim is assuming that all competitors in broadband will make their profits from the subscription fees they collect from subscribers. As we all know, that’s not how Google tends to operate. Google’s primary business model is advertising, and that’s likely from where they expect their return to come. One of Google Fiber’s price points is free, so we might expect greater adoption of the service. That’s disruptive innovation that could sustainably increase competition and bring down prices for consumers—without a government subsidy.

Kansas City sadly gave Google all sorts of subsidies, like free power and rackspace for its servers as Tim has pointed out, but it also cut serious red tape. For example, there is no build-out requirement for Google Fiber, a fact now bemoaned by digital divide activists. Such requirements, I would argue, are the true cause of the unused and wasteful overbuilding that Tim laments.

So what matters more? The in-kind subsidies or the freedom to build only where it’s profitable? I think that’s the empirical question we’re really arguing about. It’s not a forgone conclusion of broadband economics that there can be only one. And do we want to limit competition in part of a municipality in order to achieve equity for the whole? That’s another question over which “original recipe” and bleeding-heart libertarians may have a difference of opinion.

Why Google’s Biggest Problem with ‘Search Plus Your World’ Isn’t Antitrust

Over at TIME.com, I write that while some claim that Google Search Plus Your World violates antitrust laws, it likely doesn’t. But I note that Google does have a big problem on its hands: market reaction.

So if antitrust is not Google’s main concern, what is? It’s that user reaction to SPYW and other recent moves may invite the very switching and competitive entry that would have to be impossible for monopoly to hold. … Users, however, may not wait for the company to get it right. They can and will switch. And sensing a weakness, new competitors may well enter the search space. The market, therefore, will discipline Google faster than any antitrust action could.

Read the whole thing here.

Eric Schmidt, public choice scholar

Over a week ago the Washington Post published an interview with Google’s Eric Schmidt to which I’ve been meaning to draw your attention. He’s reflecting on the relationship between Silicon Valle and D.C. days after his Senate testimony, and it’s incredibly candid, perhaps because as the Post noted, “He had just come from the dentist. And had a toothache.” Here are some choice quotes:

On getting told to testify:

So we get hauled in front of the Congress for developing a product that’s free, that serves a billion people. Okay? I mean, I don’t know how to say it any clearer. I mean, it’s fine. It’s their job. But it’s not like we raised prices. We could lower prices from free to…lower than free? You see what I’m saying?

On regulation:

And one of the consequences of regulation is regulation prohibits real innovation, because the regulation essentially defines a path to follow—which by definition has a bias to the current outcome, because it’s a path for the current outcome.

On the D.C. shakedown:

And privately the politicians will say, ‘Look, you need to participate in our system. You need to participate at a personal level, you need to participate at a corporate level.’ We, after some debate, set up a PAC, as other companies have.

On political startups:

Now there are startups in Washington. And these startups have the interesting property that they’re founded by people who were policymakers, let’s say in telecommunications. They’re very clever people, and they’ve figured out a way in regulation to discriminate, to find a new satellite spectrum or a new frequency or whatever. They immediately hired a whole bunch of lobbyists. They raised some money to do that. And they’re trying to innovate through the regulation. So that’s what passes for innovation in Washington.

There’s a real sense of exasperation that is almost absurd—that is, an exhausting attempt to find rationality in political decision making. Of course, there is rational decision making, it’s just on a different margin. Here is Schmidt on expanding H-1B visas:

I’m so tired of this argument. I’m tired of making it. I’ve been making it for twenty years. In the current cast of characters, the Republicans are on our side, our local Democrats support us because our arguments are obvious, and the other Democrats don’t—because they don’t get it. The president understands the argument and would like to support us, he says, but there are various political issues. That’s roughly the situation. That’s been true for twenty years, through different presidents and different leaders. It’s stupid.

The whole thing is worth reading.